Swina

This post is a reprint of a post by Nick Alexandrow that originally appeared at Waste of Web.

Yes, I realize it’s Thursday, but it’s the Christmas season, and I went away for a couple of days:

San Diego 42 Tennessee 17
The Chargers are now officially the hottest team in the league, with 10 straight wins. Like I’ve been saying all year, watch out for this team in the playoffs, especially against the Colts, whom the Chargers always seem to get by in important games. This team hasn’t gotten a lot out of LaDanian Tomlinson this season, but maybe he’ll be rested for a great playoff run. The Titans are officially bounced from the postseason in this one. They just dug themselves too deep a hole early in the season. But they’ve discovered their quarterback of the future once again is Vince Young, and they still may end up with a 2000-yard rusher in Chris Johnson, who should still perform at a very high level the next few years.

New York Jets 29 Indianapolis 15
The big story here is how the Colts, up 15-10 in the 3rd quarter, pulled their starters and let the Jets cruise to the win, ending their chance at 19-0. It may be risky exposing Peyton Manning, probably the most important single player to a team in this decade to injury, but then again, he’s never missed a game in his career. Ever. He’s like Brett Favre but not given credit for his toughness. He has the second-longest starting streak by a QB behind the great and mighty Fav-ruh. What really bothers me is that this game had a serious effect on the AFC playoffs. The Jets now control their own destiny and only need to beat a Cincinnati team that is only playing for minor playoff positioning (3-seed vs, 4-seed, and there’s really not that much difference there). I hope the Bengals try harder because, in my opinion, the Jets are not as deserving as other teams fighting for the AFC Wild Cards (i.e. Ravens, Steelers, even the Titans who are already eliminated). They do have a great defense, but they’ve played so erratically that I don’t think they’re ready for the playoffs. The Colts need to make sure they’re sharp for their first playoff game or they may lose it again and not even make it to a huge showdown in Indy with the hot Chargers.

Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 20
The Steelers won a huge game over their biggest rivals. I think they deserve a shot at the playoffs to see what they can do. They’ve still got Super Bowl talent, especially if they can get Troy Polamalu back healthy. They have a tough game with the Dolphins though, who are still technically alive for the playoffs. The Ravens control their own destiny and will be a tough out in the playoffs if they can make it. They’re a very good team, but they’ve run into patches of inconsistency, losing close games to good teams (such as this week to the Steelers). They were heavily penalized in this game, which they need to shore up (but does it surprise you that the Ravens, known as sort of an outlaw team, would be heavily penalized like the Raiders?).

Houston 27 Miami 20
Good job, Dolphins. You’re the only franchise to ever go through a season unbeaten and untied and yet you’ve never beaten the Texans, despite numerous chances. The Dolphins fell behind early in this one and could never fully recover, even against a team known for choking away leads late in the game. The Texans are still in the playoff hunt with a shaky team, and somehow the Dolphins are too. They need to beat the Steelers and hope for losses by the Jets, Jags, Texans, and Ravens. Not bloody likely. If they’d won just one of the games they lost late, they may have made the playoffs. I predicted a .500 season out of my favorite team, and we’ll likely get it or a 7-9 season at worst. It was a tough schedule, and yes, two of the choked-away games were against the Colts and Saints, but those games sort of made this a disappointing season. Still, they’re building the talent, they’ve found their QB of the future, they still play the Wildcat better than anyone, and they still play hard and play tough defense. They’ll win the AFC East next year in my opinion.

Chicago 36 Minnesota 30
The Vikings looked terrible in the first half of this game. They couldn’t get anything going on offense, and the whispers that suddenly Brett Favre can’t play in the cold were starting to get louder (despite the fact that this game had been pointed to for weeks as the only one he would have to play in the cold all winter…although they may not be true now). But Favre brought them back in the wild second half before losing in overtime. Special teams played a major role in this game. If Chicago hadn’t blocked an extra point after the Vikings’ first touchdown, Minnesota may have won in regulation. And the Vikings may have won this game if they hadn’t allowed such huge kickoff returns to the Bears. Adrian Peterson fumbled on the second-to-last play, something that he actually does more than any running back in the NFL, which is a concern even for someone of his talent and importance, and Jay Cutler hit Devin Aromashadu for the winning touchdown. The entire game I spent wondering, “Who is this #19 guy? He’s not bad. Why haven’t I heard of him?” The reason is that he’d had 12 receptions for 102 yards all season coming into this game. In this game, he had 7 receptions for 150 yards. Jay Cutler played well in this one, on the big national stage for the first time. Trust me, folks, he’ll be much better next year, and his bad play has been seriously exaggerated by the sports media this year. He hasn’t been that bad. He’s made some stupid plays at times, yes, and had a couple of really bad games, but for the most part, he’s been decent. He’ll get better next year. If the defense can ever get back to being what they once were, this team will be in the playoffs again.

Dallas 17 Washington 0
The Cowboys have officially made the playoffs and can still win the NFC East with a win over the Eagles on Sunday. They’re not choking as in years past. In fact, they’re doing almost the opposite, especially if they can beat the Eagles. They even have a shot at a first-round bye, though that’s not likely. The Redskins were looking good, with three close losses and a couple of win in recent weeks, but the last two games, they’ve looked like they’ve given up on the season. Great audition for Bruce Allen, guys, looking as bad as the Rams.

Carolina 41 New York Giants 9
The Giants are the chokers this year. This is like the Cowboys’ game against the Eagles last year when they just got humiliated. Absolute embarrassment for this team after they Some people are saying the Giants’ season two years ago was a fluke. I don’t get how. They were the #1 seed in the playoffs last year and have made the playoffs for five years in a row, I think. That’s not fluky. That’s a consistently good team that found a way to a Super Bowl win. A lot of good teams don’t manage that. Were the 2002 Bucs a fluke just because they won a single Super Bowl that year but only made the playoffs or just missed out in all the seasons around it? No, of course not. That would mean the only winners that weren’t flukes this decade were the Patriots and possibly Steelers. The Colts were even a fluke in 2006 by that logic. Carolina climbed to 7-8 with this game and could finish at .500 with a win Sunday. Not bad for a season that started 0-3 and is now finishing up with an undrafted quarterback starting. I’ve said for years this is an unpredictable team and with the coaching staff looking like they’re coming back next season, I predict they’ll win the NFC South, though have a stinker game or two along the way.

Tampa Bay 20 New Orleans 17
The Saints lose their second straight game after 13 straight wins to open the season. This is the one that really got away. They’d won a lot of close games this year, so maybe losing a close one to a bad team is their way of getting a weird, fluky game out of their system before the more important ones in January. The still could have won if Garrett Hartley had made that field goal at the end of regulation. Maybe jettisoning John Carney and making him part of the coaching staff wasn’t such a good idea. We’ll see what happens in the kicking game going forward. The Bucs definitely lost their chance at the #1 overall pick, but they’ll get a high pick and can hopefully build along either their offensive or defensive line. They don’t need a quarterback. Josh Freeman has gone through some growing pains this season, but he’s now won three games including the last two. He’s shown he’s a hard-worker and has the physical tools to play the position. The next two seasons will say a lot about what he’s going to become and whether he truly is the long-term answer for the Bucs at the position.

New England 35 Jacksonville 7
The Patriots are getting their mojo back. Get worried, rest of the AFC. Now, they always dominate the Jaguars, so maybe we can’t make too much of this, and I still think the Colts and Chargers are far superior teams. I even think the Bengals and Ravens are superior teams. The Jags are still in the playoff hunt, but if there’s a team still in it that shouldn’t make it because of the way they’d likely embarrass themselves in the playoffs once they got there, it’s Jacksonville. This game proved it.

Atlanta 31 Buffalo 3
The Falcons were out of the playoff hunt but performed valiantly in this one. The Bills were out of the playoff hunt and performed crappily in this one. That’s all there really is to say about this game. I don’t know what’s going to happen to the Bills next year. A lot depends on their new coach. The Falcons will make the playoffs in my opinion. They play hard and have some good young talent. They need to build a little more through the draft, but they’ve got a good foundation. They, like the Dolphins, ran into a tough schedule this year after their surprising run last year. But they didn’t choke away some winnable games like Miami did. They just lost the games they were expected to.

Cleveland 23 Oakland 9
So, the Browns have won 3 in a row, complicating Mike Holmgren’s decision-making for a coach. Jerome Harrison showed he wasn’t a one-game wonder by running for 148 yards on 39 carries, though Derek Anderson didn’t do much in his return to the starter’s role following Brady Quinn’s injury. The Raiders have talent and seem to step up in big games against good teams, but when they play games like this, they just play like crap. This was a matchup of teams with major problems from the bottom of the organizations to the top, and a lot needs to be done to turn these teams around. I think the Raiders have significantly more talent, but the Browns have more hope at QB.

San Francisco 20 Detroit 6
I’ll say it again: I thought the Lions would compete a little better this year. The Niners are back to being about a .500 team like they were last year, but at least they might have their QB of the future now. They’ll compete for a playoff spot next year. The Lions won’t.

Cincinnati 17 Kansas City 10
This game was close, and the Bengals found a way to pull it out with a long drive at the end. They’ve come up big at the end a lot this year, much like the Colts. They’re now officially the AFC North Champions, and hopefully, they can win a playoff game for the first time in ages. They needed this game to get their mojo back. If I were Marvin Lewis, I wouldn’t pull back this week. This team has a fragile psyche in my opinion and needs to go into the playoffs playing hard. Beating a solid Jets team, especially if they can run the ball against their great defense, will help them immensely. The Chiefs are like the Lions. I expected a little more hope out of them. The Browns and Bucs have raised up to show a little something here at the end of lost seasons, while the two teams (among the league’s doormats) that I thought the most highly of for the future, the Chiefs and Lions, have not. Sometimes, you get things wrong. Of course, sometimes, you’re the only one who foresaw the Bengals’ season. I’m not letting that one go, by the way.

Green Bay 48 Seattle 10
The Packers are playing well obviously and will give whomever they play in the first round a very tough game. Whether that’s Arizona, Dallas, Philly, or Minnesota (please not the Vikings, please no, please not at any time in the playoffs), the Packers will give them a heck of a game. They’re quietly one of the hottest teams in the league, on a 6-1 stretch after a 4-4 start that had some (read: me) talking about how they weren’t really all that good and didn’t deserve the preseason accolades they were getting as they’d only beaten really bad teams and had lost to the Bucs. Speaking of quietly being great, how about Aaron Rodgers? He’s one of the best in the league, and nobody really seems to be talking about him. He can thank that guy wearing #4 in Minnesota for that. The Seahawks need some sort of attitude adjustment. I like Jim Mora and everything and think one year isn’t enough (and I think he got jobbed a little in Atlanta, especially since he was stuck with Michael Vick’s inconsistency), but something big needs to happen in Seattle to fix this lethargic team.

Arizona 31 St. Louis 10
The Cardinals can actually get the #2 seed in the playoffs if they win, the Eagles lose to the Cowboys, and the Vikings lose. They’ll get at least one home playoff game, and they play well on the road. It surprises me that a defending NFC Champion can be getting so little publicity and can still get a first-round bye. I’ve been saying for weeks to watch out for this team. It wouldn’t surprise me if they went back to the Super Bowl (and even won it this time), but it wouldn’t surprise me if they got blown out by the Packers in the Wild Card round either. That’s the Cardinals in a nutshell. The Rams in a nutshell: they’re terrible with little hope for the future and are lucky they avoided an 0-16 season.

Philadelphia 30 Denver 27
The Eagles almost blew this game but pulled it out in the end. With the Vikings loss, they can get a first-round bye with a win this week. Of course, with a loss to the Cowboys, they won’t even win the division and will be relegated to a Wild Card slot. Still, I expect a lot in the playoffs from this team regardless, and as of now, they’re officially my pick for the Super Bowl. I almost guarantee they’ll make yet another NFC Championship game. Denver may not make the playoffs now and don’t control their own destiny. They started 3-0 and 8-5 last year before finishing 8-8 and out of the playoffs. They started 6-0 and 8-4 this year and may end with the exact same fate. Maybe the problem wasn’t Mike Shanahan (gives hope to Redskins fans, huh?). But as much as I disliked Josh McDaniels throughout the season and have a nice sense of schadenfreude seeing how the Broncs’ season has collapsed, I think he deserves another year.

This post is a reprint of a post by Nick Alexandrow that originally appeared at Waste of Web.

Merry Christmas everyone! My gift to you is a longer than usual column this week. My take on a Week 15 that only served to make the playoff chase more complicated with two weeks to go:

Indianapolis 35 Jacksonville 31
A shootout where the Colts once again prevail at the end. They beat Jacksonville 14-12 earlier in the season, proving once again they just find ways to win week after week, which is why they’re 14-0. They rarely blow out other teams, but they always win. They’ll rest some starters the next two weeks against a decent opponent fighting for their playoff lives (the Jets) and a terrible opponent (the Bills), so we’ll see if their undefeated season continues into the playoffs. The Jags are one of six 7-7 teams in the AFC, all of whom trail the 8-6 Broncos and Ravens for the wild-card spots. If there’s a team in that group I’d bet against making it, it’s the boring Jags. However, I will say, they put up a lot of points in this game, more than I thought they ever could. Whether that speaks to their talent on offense or the Colts banged-up secondary, I don’t know.

Dallas 24 New Orleans 17
Our dreams of an 18-0 vs. 18-0 Super Bowl ended in this game, where Dallas actually came out in a game in December and played well in all facets of the game. The Cowboys now control their own destiny for a playoff spot and aren’t out of it for the NFC East crown. They really stepped it up in this one on the road, and Tony Romo played especially well. Whether they can do it again the next two weeks and then actually win a playoff game (likely to be on the road) for the first time since 1996 remains to be seen, but this game was a good sign if you’re a Cowboys fan. The Saints had been playing with fire a little recently, winning close games and pulling games out of their you-know-whats (i.e. Miami and Washington). They finally lose a game, but they’re still likely to have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and will still be the favorite to go to the Super Bowl. Considering this is a team that’s won a grand total of two playoff games in their history, maybe a loss was good for them. It takes some of the pressure off. There’s probably more pressure to complete an undefeated season if you’ve gone 16-0 than if you’ve gone 15-1 or 14-2. A loss in the playoffs would seem more devastating and seem more like a choke. A team like Indy can probably deal with that pressure (despite their typical playoff failings). Of course, I thought if there was ever a team that could deal with the pressure of going undefeated, it was the Patriots. However, maybe the Patriots’ loss in the Super Bowl alleviates some of the pressure for a future 16-0 team, especially one that doesn’t basically tear through the regular season like New England did (see Indy: this year).

Pittsburgh 37 Green Bay 36
A lot has been made of Mike Tomlin’s decision to go for the onside kick late, which set up a go-ahead touchdown for the Packers and almost cost the Steelers the game, a possible sixth straight loss. But Ben Roethlisberger drove the Steelers down the field, scoring the technically game-tying touchdown (the extra point by whack-job Jeff Reed won it) with no time remaining. The Steelers are now 7-7 with some tiebreaker advantages, though I refuse to wrap my head around all the tiebreakers and possible scenarios with two games to play and eight teams vying for two playoff spots. A lot of blame for the Steelers’ slide in recent weeks has been placed on Bruce Arians, the offensive coordinator, and this has been unfair, as the Steelers are among the best offensive teams in the league. Yes, they don’t run as well as they used to, and yes, their offensive line also can’t pass block, and yes, Big Ben takes too many sacks (five in this game…often-sacked Aaron Rodgers took only one sack in this game), and yes, the Steelers should be known for smash-mouth offense rather than Big Ben throwing for 503 yards. Still, he’s doing what’s necessary to win. The defense has let this team down, but nobody is going to dare blame Dick LeBeau, and they shouldn’t. The loss of Troy Polamalu has been huge, and overall, the defense just hasn’t played as well as it did last year. Another interesting point is that five of their seven losses were by three points. Another loss was by six, and the final one was by seven. Last year, they played the toughest schedule in the NFL and came out on top in these close games. Did luck play a role? I don’t know. But if it did, then it’s playing a role this year in the opposite direction. They found ways to win and took that momentum and mental strength all the way to the Super Bowl and won it in the last minute by four points. This year, they’re just not winning those close games. This is still a good team, one that can make noise if they make it into the playoffs, but let’s not go panicking. They’re losing very close games. Some of them were to terrible teams, like the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns, sure, but let’s not go firing people a year after winning the Super Bowl in light of these close losses. The Packers have been hot recently and only lost a tough game on the road in a place they haven’t won in 39 years (prior to the original Steelers dynasty when they were a joke and the Packers were the dominant team in the NFL). They’ll be in the playoffs and will give Arizona or Philly or Dallas a heck of a game. As I alluded to earlier, Aaron Rodgers isn’t taking so many sacks, and he’s quietly become one of the best QBs in the game, easily top 10, in my opinion.

Tennessee 27 Miami 24
The Dolphins lose another close game and all to 7-7, losing an important tiebreaker with the Titans in the process. This was a game that the Titans dominated early, however, and the Dolphins only crawled back in at the end before falling in overtime. You know they want at least one of these game back, as any one of them will likely cost them the playoffs. The Titans are playing well, 7-1 since their 0-6 start, and who said many weeks ago that they expected the Titans to reach .500 again at some point during the season? Oh right, that was me. This team was a Super Bowl contender last year, and with the way they’re playing, they would be a tough out if they made it to the p layoffs. If the Dolphins make it, with the way they play, a tough, physical style, limited mistakes, and occasionally mixing in the Wildcat chicanery, they could pose a tough threat too. I feel bad for my Dolphins and feel somewhat at fault for this game, as I spent much of Saturday, especially when I went outside in the snow, wearing my VY jersey. It’s also confusing to watch a game between two teams you always root for except when they play each other. I started cheering a Titans’ interception, then remember who they were playing.

Oakland 20 Denver 19
The Broncos’ playoff hopes took a huge hit in this one, though they’re still in charge of their own destiny. They started 6-0 and are 2-6 in their last 8. That contrasts the Titans’ 0-6 start, followed by a 7-1 run. So, who deserves to make the playoffs? Well, right now, the Broncos do because they have a better record. I hate hearing how a team “deserves” to be in the playoffs more because they’re playing better at the end of the season. The playoffs are a reward for the entire 16-game season. Why don’t we just count the last eight games if we’re going to make value judgments that don’t make sense? Yes, the Titans are more likely to be competitive in the playoffs. Yes, I’d rather see them make it instead of Denver. But if the 6-0 start gets the Broncos in the playoffs, that’s the way the system is set up and that’s the way it should be set up. The Raiders had an interesting day in this one. Did you know Charlie Frye was still in the league? Did you know he plays for the Raiders? He started this one and got hurt, forcing JaMarcus “Leaf” Russell to come in on the final drive. Somehow, he led them to the winning touchdown. Maybe that jumpstarts his career. Probably not though. Tom Cable is still planning on starting Frye again next week if he’s healthy. Also, did you know J.P. Losman is back in the NFL after a stint in the UFL? Shockingly, the Raiders picked him up. So, they’re full of terrible former bust QBs. Still, this team has far more talent than their record shows, and really 5-9 isn’t awful. If they had a decent QB, they’d probably be a .500 team. If they had a real coach and didn’t have a crypt keeper meddling in their affairs, they may be competing for a playoff spot.

Carolina 26 Minnesota 7
So, Minnesota has lost two of their last three games, so obviously, they can’t be taken seriously. Their season is done, and we should move on. Really? I remember in 1998, when the Broncos started 13-0 and locked up homefield advantage. They lost a fluky game to the Giants, then played a vanilla game against the Dolphins on Monday night and lost to a team who desperately needed the win. All of a sudden, a team people were touting as one of the best teams ever had no shot at the Super Bowl. Only Cris Collinsworth of all people had the sense to say, wait a minute, you’re picking the Jets over this team that started 13-0 and has a 2,000-yard rusher and Hall of Fame quarterback? Why do we rush to judgment so quickly over one loss? I don’t get it. The Broncos demolished the Dolphins, beat the Jets, then beat the Falcons to win the Super Bowl, by the way. The Vikings still have as much talent on offense as anybody. I know Brett Favre had a bad game, but his offensive line had a terrible game, and that’s why Brad Childress wanted to take him out, because he was getting beaten up and there are more important games to come. It does say something that Favre refused to come out and undermined the authority of his coach (who I’ve never seen as one of the stronger personalities in the league). But we’ll see what plays out there. The Vikings will be fine as long as they don’t blow the #2 seed to Philly. The Panthers are a vexing team. You never know what you’re going to get with them, and this was yet another example. Julius Peppers actually lived up to this contract for once in this one, and Steve Smith finally showed people he didn’t sign with the Giants this season to be a possession receiver. Watch. They’ll go 11-5 next year or better, and we’ll all wonder where that came from. But three of those losses will be absolutely terrible and possibly to bad teams.

San Diego 27 Cincinnati 24
An emotional game for the Bengals who played well coming back in this one but ultimately lost in the end to a superior team playing at home. The Chargers are a serious contender for the Super Bowl, and like I say every week, they give the Colts fits, especially in the playoffs, so watch out. They’re also coached by Norv Turner, so they may not get a second playoff game in Indy (this win pretty much locked up the 2-seed for the Chargers, so they’ll likely get a bye and one game before a possible AFC Championship Game against the Colts). The Bengals need to win another game to lock up the division and a home playoff game. They’re not playing as well as they did earlier in the season, but they’re defense is solid, they have some talent on offense, and they held their own against one of the top teams In the league on the road. By the way, Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and nobody talks about him. I realize he was drafted the same year as Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning (who have both won Super Bowls) and plays in their shadow somewhat and plays in the shadow of his predecessor in San Diego, Drew Brees. But this guy is a winner, and he puts up big numbers to his talented receiving corps. I know he can come across as an ass sometimes, but I think he’s just a competitive guy. He’s right behind Peyton, Brady, Brees, and Big Ben in my book and ahead of Eli, Favre, McNabb, and Rodgers.

Houston 16 St. Louis 13
The Texans play a crappy game against a crappy team and barely win. They’re in the huge mix of 7-7 teams just out of the playoffs but definitely still in contention. This team doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs in my opinion. The Rams don’t deserve to be in the league. I actually recall a “Married With Children” episode where Al Bundy says, “This is an important game for the Bears. They’re playing the Rams, and if you lose to the Rams, you get thrown out of the league.” That didn’t apply during the early part of this decade or in 1999 (clearly), but it does now again.

New England 17 Buffalo 10
The Patriots play yet another uninspiring game and come away with a fairly close win against an inferior opponent. They’ll win the AFC East, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they lost at home to a wild-card, unless it’s Denver they host. The Bills won’t make the playoffs for the 10th straight year. Their last playoff game was the Music City Miracle Game, also known as the Why the Hell Didn’t the Bills Start Dough Flutie over Rob Johnson Game. This is not a well-run franchise.

Cleveland 41 Kansas City 34
Well, say this about the Browns, at least they put on some interesting games when they play terrible teams (such as the Lions game). Joshua Cribbs is the best player on this team, clearly, and now has the record for career kickoff returns for touchdowns. More than Devin Hester, more than Dante Hall, more than Eric Metcalf, more than Deion Sanders, more than Gale Sayers. Jerome Harrison ran for 286 yards in this one, fourth most in NFL history. Seriously. Jerome Harrison. Fifteen years ago, this would have been the record. Only Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, and Adrian Peterson ran for more in a game. Dillon broke Walter Payton’s record. Where’d this guy come from? Brady Quinn is apparently out for the season, which is sad news, but I hope he’ll be back next year. I wonder if Mike Holmgren, who is taking over management of the team, is going to keep Eric Mangini. I doubt it, but I’ve heard some positive things recently and that a lot of players want him to stay, that he’s building something good. I have nothing really to say about the Chiefs. I ignore terrible teams that don’t have a lot going for them, like their neighbors to the east in Missouri.

Baltimore 31 Chicago 7
The Ravens keep their playoff hopes very much alive, with a huge game against the Steelers looming next week. This team will be very dangerous come playoff time if they make it in. Jay Culter seems to have given up on the season, as he played an actual terrible game, not an up-and-down game or a game where he throws three picks that aren’t his fault. He deserves criticism this week, unlike many weeks where people pile on because they think he’s an ass. The Bears have a lot of issues, and I wonder if Lovie Smith is going to be back, though I hope so because I like the guy and he did lead them to a Super Bowl. He led them to a Super Bowl when Rex Grossman was the starting quarterback. If that shouldn’t buy a guy some time, nothing will. But if I’m Mike Shanahan, I take the Bears job over the Redskins job if it’s available.

Tampa Bay 24 Seattle 7
I can see why Mike Holmgren didn’t want to go back to Seattle to preside over what may be a mess than he was somewhat responsible for leaving. He built the team to Super Bowl level, then saw the team fading, so he announced his retirement a year before he was set to go, then the team tanked because of injuries, and now they’re irrelevant. He sees more hope in the Browns’ situation than he does in the Seahawks’. What does that say? The Bucs finally win another game, but in the process, they have given up their chance to draft N’Damakong Suh. But who knows? The Rams need a quarterback, so they may go that direction with their first pick.

Atlanta 10 New York Jets 7
A terribly-played game by both teams that was clearly defense-dominated. Turnovers, missed field goals, the complete inability to move the ball at times, the complete inability to score any points in the red zone at others. All these things plagued this game. The Falcons scored a touchdown on fourth down near the end to win it. Ironically, they were still eliminated from playoff contention at 7-7. The Jets are still in it as one of the six 7-7 teams, so you don’t know what’s going to happen with them. To go back to who I think deserves the playoffs and who doesn’t, the Jets don’t. The Falcons are a decent team, like I’ve been saying all year, and it was predictable they’d slide back to about a .500 team, much like the Dolphins. Barring injuries, I think they’ll be back in the playoffs next year. The NFC South turns over and inside out and upside down every year, so while it seems asinine to say anybody but the Saints will win the division next year, weird things happen every year. I’ll say it right now, my pick for next year in the NFC South is Atlanta.

Arizona 31 Detroit 24
The Cardinals go up early, then almost blow the lead to the lowly Lions, but hold on to win and win their second straight division title. They have the talent to win in the playoffs, as they showed last year. They won two road games they weren’t expected to win, then were lucky enough to host the lowest playoff seed (the Eagles) at home before giving the Steelers a heck of a game in the Super Bowl. Don’t count a Kurt Warner team. Concerning the Lions, again I say that I expected a little more out of them this season. They’re staying in games, I guess, but I really thought 4-5 wins was what to expect. Maybe the talent pool was so bad that it’s going to be harder to recover from the Matt Millen Era than we all thought.

Philadelphia 27 San Francisco 13
The Eagles look like one of the best teams in the league, even with Brian Westbrook still out with a head, and I think they could contend with the Saints and/or Vikings in the playoffs. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team, in my opinion. The 49ers were supposed to get better this year, but if they don’t win both their final games, they won’t improve at all. Alex Smith had a terrible game against a good Philly D in this one, but I think he’ll be the starter next year and continue to get better. He’s still really young; there’s a new regime in San Francisco than the one that drafted and benched him; and he’s shown a lot of promise and maturity. He’s the right guy for this team too. He can light it up when necessary, but Mike Singletary would prefer to run it and play smash-mouth defensive football. Alex Smith seems like the kind of guy that would be fine with a 13-17, 142-yard day with one TD and no picks in a win.

New York Giants 45 Washington 12
Just as you think the Redskins were starting to play better and looking like a much-improved team, BOOM!, they go out and take a dump all over themselves on national TV. The Giants looked good, with Eli really spreading the ball around and the running game looking improved, but who knows? Maybe they looked good because the Redskins just played so poorly. The Giants can be a factor if they make the playoffs, but I wonder if it’s too little, too late for them. They needed the Cowboys to lose, and they clearly didn’t, but they can still hope for a collapse from the chokers in Big D.

This post is a reprint of a post by Nick Alexandrow that originally appeared at Waste of Web.

My take on Week 14, an abbreviated version this week, as it’s now Wednesday, and to be honest, I was at a Christmas party during the 4:00 games and Sunday night game and was only able to catch glimpses of the games. Of course, I say now that it will be abbreviated, but just wait, I’ll write 4 pages in Word like always:

Indianapolis 28 Denver 16
The Colts clinch homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with this win, and Denver’s hold on the top wild-card gets a little more dicey, as they’re only up a game on the glut of 7-6 teams. The wild-card chase will be interesting, and like I’ve previously said, it will likely come down to the final week and multiple, weird, three-or-four-team tiebreakers. The Colts will now rest starters, possibly lose a game or two, and hope to be strong for the playoffs. Interestingly enough, the year they went to the Super Bowl, they were the 3-seed and played hard to the end. In other years, with homefield advantage, they’ve choked away the first playoff game. Of course, last year, they started 3-4, won their last nine games, played hard to the end, then lost their first playoff game to San Diego. The playoffs are now what matters to the Colts and beating the Chargers (which they can’t seem to do) and/or the Patriots (though I realize they’ve had their number somewhat very recently) might be their undoing yet again. Interesting note about going undefeated that I saw today from Mike Wilbon. He said that if the Colts go 19-0 to win their second Super Bowl in the Manning Era, they’d almost usurp the Pats dynasty in a way, despite still being a ring behind because they would have completed the perfect season, where the Pats fell short. Not sure I agree with it, as the Colts aren’t as dominant, so losing wouldn’t feel as much like a choke, but that Wilbon’s opinion and worth noting. Also, now’s the time I make the point about the 1972 Dolphins, since the fact that they didn’t win a lot of blowouts against a really soft schedule has seemed to hurt them among the people annoyed by Mercury Morris (the Colts are winning a lot of close ones and don’t feel as dominate as the 2007 Pats, as I said above). There is one team in the NFL history (at least the Super Bowl era) that has led the league in total offense and total defense (yardage) as well as scoring offense and scoring defense. One. That team went 17-0. How you can’t say that’s the best team ever baffles me.

New Orleans 26 Atlanta 23
The Saints, who feel more dominant than the Colts are also winning a lot of close games, this being yet another (remember last week’s lucky win over the Redskins). The concept of two 18-0 teams battling in the Super Bowl is a very intriguing one and one I’m rooting for. It might take two undefeated teams to break the streak of having at least #1 conference seed lose before the Super Bowl (the last season both #1 seeds advanced to the Super Bowl was 1993…seriously, look it up, 1993). I’d still bet against it happening, both #1 seeds advancing and the close, almost lucky wins by both undefeated teams make me think either is ripe for a devastating upset. I think the Colts could survive one better than the Saints, for what it’s worth. This week’s game for the Saints was a back-and-forth affair where they came up big in the end, as usual. Unfortunately for the Falcons and their injured starts (Matt Ryan and Michael Turner), another playoff run looks unlikely this year. They’ve got something good going though and will contend again next year, especially since they play in the baffling, confusing NFC South, where you never know what’s going to happen, such as the Saints being 13-0.

Miami 14 Jacksonville 10
The Dolphins are right back in the thick of things in the playoff hunt with this win. The Jags lose a big one, as they’re now one of the many 7-6 teams in the AFC, but down a tiebreaker to the ‘Phins who win a big road game playing their game. They didn’t bust out the Wildcat in this one, just ran a traditional offense with second-year man Chad Henne throwing and handing off to Ricky Williams, but this tough, physical, smart team played well in all facets to beat another tough team. Good game, Dolphins.

Cleveland 13 Pittsburgh 6
The Steelers have really fallen hard after a 6-2 start, which included beating the Vikings. They’ve lost now to the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns. This game was probably the worst one though, losing to a team that I honestly felt (and still feel) was the worst in the league and a team the Steelers regularly beat up on. It looks like there’ll be a new Super Bowl champion this year because I don’t see the Steelers making the playoffs now. Just like in 2006, the defending champ Steelers are the ones feeling the Super Bowl hangover, not the runner-up Cardinals (a la the Seahawks in 2006). This shouldn’t give too much hope to the Browns because the Steelers lost this game, not the other way around. That team still needs to clean house. Although, I think Brady Quinn is a keeper. I realize he didn’t do a whole lot in this game, but he still won it, and he’s played well since assuming the starter’s role again. The guy will be a good QB in this league for awhile.

Minnesota 30 Cincinnati 10
An interesting game because it pitted one of the NFC’s best against one of the AFC’s best. Although, people expected the Vikings to be good (maybe not THIS good) and didn’t expect the Bengals to be this good (not even I expected it, Mr. Bengals Bandwagon all season). The Bengals would have to go through a serious collapse not to win their division, and the Vikings are almost completely locked into the 2-seed in the NFC right now. The Vikings are going to be judged on what they do in the playoffs, as will Brett Favre obviously, so it’s hard to say anything about them now. They’ve done what they had to do, and they couldn’t have done much better (other than going undefeated along with the Saints and Colts). The Bengals will be judged in the playoffs too, seeing if they win a playoff game for the first time in something like 20 years. But at the same, most people will consider this season a success with an AFC North title, definitely with one playoff win, in a season that most people (except me) expected them to tank.

Green Bay 21 Chicago 14
The Pack went up early, then fell behind, then scored the winning TD and 2-pt conversion. The Bears found a way to lose yet again, and again I bring up this fact: it’s not all on Jay Culter, not by any stretch of the imagination. The Packers got a good day from Ryan Grant, and if the team is running the ball well, they’re hard to stop on offense. I know I was down on the Pack earlier this season, after they seemed to only be able to beat the Lions and after they lost to the Bucs, but I’ve changed my mind. They’ve come on strong with five straight wins now, and they’ll likely be a wild-card in the playoffs. However, even though the game will be in Minnesota if it happens, do we really want a Packers-Vikings playoff game? Do we really want a week-long ESPN spoogefest? No, no we don’t.

New England 20 Carolina 10
The Patriots overcame a sluggish start in this one to win a game they were expected to win. They’d lost two in a row for the first time in awhile, so they needed a win. They didn’t look great doing it, but many of their Super Bowl teams didn’t look great winning 14 regular seasons game either. This game was boring and blah with no real stars. Randy Moss apparently got disinterested after not getting the ball thrown his way, but don’t worry, he’ll be back. Carolina is clearly looking to next year right now and seeing if undrafted QB Matt Moore might be a long-term answer at the position now that they seem to have given up on Jake Delhomme (despite his contract extension).

New York Jets 26 Tampa Bay 3
Kellen Clemens took over for the injured Mark Sanchez for the Jets in this one, and did what he had to do in an easy win dominated by the Jets D, who picked off Josh Freeman three times. The Jets got back into the playoff hunt with this one, though considering their two losses to the also 7-6 Dolphins, they could be behind on tiebreakers. The Bucs are terrible and now have the inside track for the #1 overall pick in the draft. My question is, with the season probably going worse than even expected for a rebuilding year, do they make a coaching change? It’ll be interesting to see.

Baltimore 48 Detroit 3
I was hoping for more out of the Lions this year than we’ve gotten, but at least they’re not going 0-16. The Ravens did what they had to do and are one of a glut of 7-6 teams fighting for a wild-card. If they make it, they’ll be a tough out yet again like they were last year.

Washington 34 Oakland 13
The Raiders get up for big games (Philly, San Diego, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh), but for the Redskins, they’d rather mail that one in and make a terrible team look like a mediocre one for a week. I do think the Redskins have improved exponentially since the beginning of the season, but this game and the margin and the fact that the Redskins had some sustained drives in this one speak more to the Raiders suckitude than anything else. One comment on this one. Some guy I’d never met at the Christmas party I attended during this game said he was Tivoing it and was going to watch later. That’s some dedicated fan, Tivoing a game of your 3-9 team. Wow.

Buffalo 16 Kansas City 10
This is one of those games that you don’t care about or watch this late in the season unless you’re a fan of one of the two teams (see Redskins Tivoing guy) because neither team is going anywhere. The Bills have some interest with their coaching situation and the fact that Perry Fewell has led them to a 2-1 record, but that’s about it up there in the cold. The Chiefs have a couple of years to go before they’re relevant (assuming they can become relevant).

Tennessee 47 St. Louis 7
The Titans rebound from their loss to Indy by slaughtering the hapless Rams in a rematch of the Super Bowl from 10 years ago. Actually, scratch that. Jeff Fisher is still around, but I don’t think anybody else relevant except some front office people are still around from that game. Kurt Warner is still around somehow, though clearly not in St. Louis. Sadly, Steve McNair is not. Anyway, the Titans aren’t out of it yet, and VY continues his resurgence. Kerry Collins did play a lot in this blowout though.

San Diego 20 Dallas 17
The Chargers just looked like the better team in this one. The Cowboys continue their trend of losing in December, but losing to the Chargers isn’t actually a choke job. I mean, they have won 8 in a row. Only the Colts and Saints (duh) are hotter right now. The Chargers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, especially since they seem to have the Colts’ number in the playoffs. And they’re doing this without a lot of contribution from LaDanian Tomlinson. Maybe Norv Turner should get a lot of credit here. Although, he’s Norv Turner, so no, I just can’t do it. But maybe after being a head coach for so long, he’s learned. I still can’t agree with that. The Cowboys need to get it together, with the Saints, better-playing Redskins, and Eagles coming up. They’re still right there in the playoff hunt, so they can still make it in.

Houston 34 Seattle 7
The Texans, after losing four in a row, earn an easy win in this one to stay in the playoff chase in the AFC, where anything could happen. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson did their thing, and the defense played well, holding the boring, uninspiring Seahawks to seven points. Not much to see here, folsk.

Philadelphia 45 New York Giants 38
Probably the game of the week, with neither defense playing well and both offenses lighting up the scoreboard on Sunday night. The Eagles take control on the NFC East for now, with the Cowboys a game back and the Giants two games back. The Giants are still well alive for a wild-card, though Dallas currently holds the six-seed. The Giants are the only 7-6 team in the NFC though (where there are four in the AFC and another three teams at 6-7), and there are only two 6-7 teams behind them. Michael Vick got another touchdown in this one, but for some reason, I don’t really care about that (he also had a 32-yard pass). I doubt they’ll make sure he’s in there at the goal line, getting those touches come playoff time. I actually like the Eagles chances at making the Super Bowl, and I wouldn’t count them out by any stretch. Obviously, I like them to make yet another NFC Championship Game. The Giants can win if they get into the playoffs too. Despite the fact that the NFC might look like two teams (the Saints and the Vikings) are running away with the Conference, I wouldn’t count out any major contenders to make a run (like last year). I definitely wouldn’t count out these two teams, the Packers with the way they’ve been playing recently, and I wouldn’t count out the Cardinals.

San Francisco 24 Arizona 9
Yes, I wouldn’t count out the Cardinals despite losing yet again to the 49ers. They’re two games up with three to play, so even though they’re down in the tiebreaker to the Niners, they’d have to really collapse to lose this division, and I don’t see that happening. The Cardinals still lose games they probably shouldn’t, but they weren’t really ever in this one. Based on their talent and based on what they did last year, I can see them making another Super Bowl run though. The Niners have seemed to get things back together, and are quietly inching back towards .500. But they were 7-9 last year, so it won’t look like a marked improvement. But they’re learning the tough Mike Singletary Way now, and it looks like they drafted their QB of the future in 2005 in Alex Smith. I’m happy to see him be successful and be successful where he was originally drafted. Maybe the stories of Alex Smith and Vince Young should give pause to teams looking to dump their first-round quarterbacks who don’t pan out right away. (Although, memo to the Raiders: you CAN give up. JaMarcus Russell is terrible.) Maybe the new (assumed) regime in Cleveland should give that a thought.

Okay, this is almost four pages in Word. I can’t make these things abbreviated if I try.